Handicapping College Bowl Games
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Handicapping College Bowl Games
Posted 12/17/11 by Wayne Allyn Root
Wayne Allyn Root has made money every bowl season for over 25 years!
I been handicapping bowl games remarkedly well for decades. Profitable each and every year with the proper money management, hitting the “key” games extra hard, and sticking to the fundamentals that I developed decades ago. I began to compile some trends and guidelines in a general nature of which I still incorporate as a check-list and bowl bettting guideline. Handicapping college bowl games is very different from handicapping regular season college games in so many ways. Bowl games themselves are different from other games. This is a huge platform for some of the bowl teams, as this is their biggest television audience of the entire year. These teams use a good showing to help with their recruiting efforts. The structure, the practices, the party atmosphere all play a vital role in these games. Too muchpartying equals a poor performance. That’s where my contacts and insider knowledge comes in. A professional must know who is trying…and who is spending too much time drinking
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Bowl games are played at neutral sites by teams that have not faced each other this season (or often for many seasons). The bowl games feature teams from different conferences making it very difficult to get a read on who has played a tougher schedule. And they have had a 3 to 4 week layoff since their last game. College bowl game matchups strongly resemble the number 5 versus number 13 seed matchups in the first round of the NCAA Basketball tournament. And when the underdog competes well in a Bowl game, they will often pull off the outright upset. That is important knowledge to know for big odds moneyline bets that can make or break your Bowl Season.
Motivation Factors
Every year in college football there are Bowl games that are marquee matchups…and there are teams that shouldn’t even be playing. But with the expansion to 64 teams, there are many opportunities to profit. Teams that thought they got the shaft…and teams that are lucky to just be there are some definite factors I work with. You have to look at the motivation factor when handicapping college bowl games, as that is just as important as looking at the main handicapping factors. Another of the main factors is how has a team performed on the road. Often in Bowl situations regular season stats and won/loss record do not matter as much. Bowl games are all about attitude and as we’ve seen over the years, teams that are motivated to play well, usually win…and those that are not motivated get sent home with their heads down.
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A) Look for teams that did not live up to expectations during the regular season to not be happy about the bowl game they are playing in. The players were thinking they would be in a BCS or legit bowl game and if they are not playing in one they will probably not be motivated for the game. Teams that did not play well at the end of the season, sometimes play well in bowl games, and sometimes B-O-M-B. Surprising teams that played above expectations are sometimes motivated about their bowl game, other times just thrilled and shocked to be there. Only WAR knows for sure.
B) If you are looking for line value, look for teams that ended the season winning a big rivalry game, as they may be disappointing in a bowl game. This can be a solid factor to look at, as the public thinks that the momentum will carry over into the bowl game. However, it is often the case that the team that already played in their big game of the season, especially if the bowl is a non-BCS game, do not have any juice left for the bowl game. Only WAR knows for sure.
C) On the value-based “bounce back” premise, look for teams that were upset in their last regular season game to sometimes bounce back and have a strong bowl game and getting an added point or so from the oddsmakers. Teams that have something to prove will sometimes bring their “A game”…sometimes not. Only WAR knows for sure.
D) Seniors play a tremendous role for the underclassmen and tend to be motivated for bowl games. The last game of a college career will bring out the best in players, as they want to go out with a win. Experience is something you have to look at and when you combine that with motivation it is a solid combination.
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E) Add fuel to teams that will be underdogs for the game where they think they should have been the favorite. Players do not like to be disrespected. This is a good thing to look at, as there is nothing that gets a team motivated more then when they do not get respect. Teams that have been reading in the press that they are the weaker of the teams are sometimes ready for the game and the coaches will let them know what the press is saying about them. Sometimes teams like this can come out on fire and look for something to prove. Other times they fall flat on their face, not ready to step up in class. Only WAR knows for sure.
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F) Many teams are hand picked in
particular bowl games based solely on their fan base and in terms of how many
will travel to the game. This is the business of sports. It’s not about winning.
It’s about selling tickets and providing out of town revenue to the local
economy.
Motivation is probably the biggest factor in handicapping bowl games. If you can pick the teams that are more motivated for the game it will make picking winners easier.
OTHER FACTORS
The public loves to bet on scoring teams. There’s an old saying that “a
good defense always beats a good offense.” Well it doesn’t always. But in some
cases it is the stone cold truth. Let the public take the high octane offense. I
often take the value and go for a good defense in the right spots. The layoff
factor also plays a role in college bowl games. Many teams have a break of
several weeks between the end of their regular season college football schedule
and their bowl game. This is a key factor, for some coaches are much better than others at preparing their team to play after a long layoff.
good defense always beats a good offense.” Well it doesn’t always. But in some
cases it is the stone cold truth. Let the public take the high octane offense. I
often take the value and go for a good defense in the right spots. The layoff
factor also plays a role in college bowl games. Many teams have a break of
several weeks between the end of their regular season college football schedule
and their bowl game. This is a key factor, for some coaches are much better than others at preparing their team to play after a long layoff.
NO ONE GETS MORE INFORMATION ON PRACTICES, TRAVEL AND MOTIVATION THAN WAR
Underdogs simply bring value to the table in Bowls. Not all Bowls. But the
right Bowls. Only WAR knows for sure. And what about those neutral sites? Be sure to check where the bowl game is being played. There are times when bowl games are played either in a team’s home stadium (Hawaii and Boise State come to mind), or very close to their home stadiums (MAC teams among others). The home eam advantage is sometimes an edge you can take advantage of. Teams that have not been to a bowl game in recent years and smaller schools unknown nationally that have a Napoleonic complex when competing in bowl games against larger schools are sometimes wagers to consider. Both players and coaches at the small school want to make a name for themselves by thumping a big time opponent. But can they? Only WAR knows for sure.
right Bowls. Only WAR knows for sure. And what about those neutral sites? Be sure to check where the bowl game is being played. There are times when bowl games are played either in a team’s home stadium (Hawaii and Boise State come to mind), or very close to their home stadiums (MAC teams among others). The home eam advantage is sometimes an edge you can take advantage of. Teams that have not been to a bowl game in recent years and smaller schools unknown nationally that have a Napoleonic complex when competing in bowl games against larger schools are sometimes wagers to consider. Both players and coaches at the small school want to make a name for themselves by thumping a big time opponent. But can they? Only WAR knows for sure.
NO ONE IN SPORTS HANDICAPPING HISTORY HAS PICKED MORE COLLEGE BOWL WINNERS THAN WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
Look for teams that ran the table (exception: team could have lost 1st or
2nd game of the season, then ran the table) up until the last game of the season
then lost their final game. This would usually be the rivalry game, or the
conference championship game. Bet against these teams in their bowl game. This angle is especially powerful if the loss cost the team a BCS game. It is even
more powerful if that loss cost the team a chance to play for the national
title.
THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME IS ALABAMA vs
LSU…
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