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WEEK 3 NFL POWER RATINGS

WEEK 3 NFL POWER RATINGS

by WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
There are a few surprises after 2 weeks of NFL play as Buffalo and Arizona are at the top of their divisions. Seattle has suffered an early season loss is news to some. The 49er’s blew a 13 point lead at home is stunning to many. Carolina and Houston are both 2-0 and looking to improve. On the other side we see the Colts and Saints sitting at 0-2 but both had a difficult schedule leading to their losses.
1) DENVER—The Broncos moved up on the heels of a small snafu from Seattle losing in San Diego. There’s no shame in not covering a double digit pointspread as KC got the cash. The Broncos were horrible against the run as 3 stars from KC were out and nearly won in mile high despite that fact. Their next game is last years Super Bowl re-match where the Seahawks destroyed them 43-8 on a neutral field. Good luck playing in Seattle…with the Hawks coming off a loss!
2) SEATTLE—The Seahawks went from the cool northwest to a field that was 108 degrees, meeting with hard hitting San Diego and suffered an early season defeat. Not to worry Seahawks faithful. The gameplan the Chargers put together will be studied by every NFL team as they held the ball for 42:15 minutes compared to Seattle’s 17:45 minutes. But with Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson, the defensive secondary, Coach Pete Carroll, the best fans and the Broncos coming to town, it’s only a week out of the top spot.
3) PHILADELPHIA—Chip Kelly’s team is sitting at 2-0 after defeating the Colts on the road. May as well give the NFC East title to them. QB Foles has the Eagles flying high on offense with a +30 point average. This team will be relevant for the rest of the season and will continue to play well but no longer under-the-radar. They are at home against a tuff Washington Redskins team.
4) CINCINNATI—The Bengals beat the Falcons last week but took a few big hits with injuries along the way. If A.J. Greens foot injury is serious, it could spell trouble ahead for Cincinnati. The Bengals defense was smothering against Atlanta as they forced Matt Ryan into throwing 3 interceptions. They host Tennessee this week so Green’s status is critical.
5) GREEN BAY—It must be great to be a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. First you get legendary Coach Vince Lombardi. Then the arm of QB Brett Farve and now with the best QB in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers. Everyone watching the game, all the fans and most of the NY Jets players knew what was about to happen as the Packers rallied behind Rodgers and Jordy Nelson to overcome an 18 point deficit. Their only loss is against the defending Champs so confidence must be high. But hold all bets: they are on the road against Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson as they travel to Detroit.
6) NEW ENGLAND —Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves crowning the Patroits as the team to beat in the AFC after winning in Minnesota. The Viking were without disgraced star, Adrian Peterson. Matt Cassel tossed 4 interceptions so their wasn’t much left to get in the way of a Tom Brady victory. Brady is not the Brady of old but still should garnish a week 3 win as they host the offensive deprived Oakland Raiders.
7) SAN DIEGO—The entire NFL teams salute the big Chargers win Sunday over the Seattle Seahawks. They showed how to defeat the defending World Champions thru clock management and Philip Rivers attacking the Seahawks secondary. But did the win and the 108 degree field temperature take a toll on the Chargers as they travel 3000 miles to play Buffalo in an early day game this Sunday? This can’t be a great week to celebrate for the San Diego players. Set your alarms for 4:30 am pac time.
8) SAN FRANCISCO—How did the 49er’s blow a 20-7 lead at home to the Chicago Bears. Colin Kaepernick lost something somewhere in the 2nd half.. The offensive line allowed the Bears to put tremendous pressure on their QB. Colin Kaepernick threw 3 interceptions and had a fumble. That’s how a team blows a big lead. And looking back to week 1, they had nothing in the second half against Dallas. They need answers and quick as they travel to NFC West leaders Arizona.
9) BUFFALO—Am I the only one who penciled in the Bills to be in first place after week 2 of play within the AFC East? The Bills are energized with a week 1 win on the road in Chicago, a new Owner from Buffalo and a nice win against a division foe in the Miami Dolphins. They play a situational game this week against San Diego coming in all smiles after taking down the Seahawks. And it’s an early morning start for the pacific time zone team. Team breakfast at 6am pac.
10) ARIZONA—It’s hard to believe the Cardinals got a cross country win on the road playing without QB Carson Palmer and defensive star John Abraham. After 2 hours of play and a trip to the airport, Arizona had won by 11 points and was 2-0 and leading the NFC West. This is not a good week to have to play the 49er’s coming off their own troubles by blowing a 20-7 lead and with the uncertainty of the playing status of QB Carson Palmer.
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SOME OF THESE TEAMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TOP 10
11) CAROLINA—The Panthers remain undefeated at 2-0 and are in the spotlight hosting the Steelers on Sunday Night this week.
12) INDIANAPOLIS—No worries as they are in the AFC South and have lost to 2 playoff headed teams.
13) NEW ORLEANS—The pigskin will be flying this week as the Saints have their first home game against the Vikings. Their 0-2 start is not so bad and they can put together a 6, 7 or 8 game winning streak.
14) BALTIMORE—The Ravens made a nice comeback win for themselves last Thursday as they defeated division rival Pittsburgh.
15) CHICAGO—The Bears dominated the 2nd half last Sunday Night on Primetime and overcame a 7-20 score. Now they get to move from Sunday Primetime to Monday Primetime as the are in NY against the Jets….but with many defensive players injured.

 

NFL TOP 10 for WEEK 2

NFL TOP 10 for WEEK 2
by WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
There was a lot of scrambling with-in the Top 10 as 5 teams there last week are 0-1. This is the “On Any Given Sunday” NFL that Pete Rozelle wanted. Week 2 games are intriguing and will have a few surprises for the fans.
1) SEATTLE—The defense is as good as expected. Russell Wilson looked great. The fans did what was expected in making this the most difficult venue in the NFL. You almost think the Seahawks played like they were the defending Super Bowl Champions. Next up is on the road to San Diego.
2) DENVER—This will be an interesting game coming up. Denver did not finish off the Colts last week and this week they get to play a team everybody saw get destroyed, at Arrowhead, trying to do the week 2 reversal. Good thing it’s at home for the Bronco fans. Denver is a double-digit favorite in the important conference game against Kansas City.
3) CINCINNATI: The Bengals move up five spots this week as week 1 top teams 3 thru 7 all lost.That might be the ghost of Pete Rozelle’s parody haunting the NFL which is good for football. As for the Bengals, it may be all about AJ Green on Rozelle’s “Any Given Sunday” for the 1-0 Bengals. Winning on the road in conference play on the opening week could tell a season reaching story.
4) SAN FRANCISCO—The 49er’s defense made Sunday’s opening week at Dallas somewhat confusing. They were dominating the scoreboard defensively so the questions to be asked are: were Kaepernick’s 8 for 8 for 99 yards the normal? Will it be about Vernon Davis, the super-star TE or WR Anquan Boldin? Throw in a 100 yards from Frank Gore and the mighty 49er defense, and the NFC West has the best race to first place in the entire league!
5) PHILADELPHIA—Nick Foles turned the ball over in the first half and millions of fans in the “last longer no pointspread” pools were almost out for the entire year at halftime behind 0-17 to the Jags. But a 15 of 21 second half performance and 34 unanswered points showed the NFC that at least one team can play in the East. They have a much harder venue ahead this week as they are in the MNF spotlight playing at Indianapolis.
6) NEW ORLEANS: The played the ole song, “When The Saints Come Marching In” but forgot to tell New Orleans it’s all about how you march out. The Saints have not been a very good road team and really blew it within their division against the Atlanta Falcons. Now it can only get more miserable for the “Ain’t” as they are on the road again against a decent Cleveland team. Brees has to somehow get the New Orleans Voodoo Chief to put a magic carpet ride to Cleveland to grab a win. It is said that 0-2 teams do not generally make the playoffs.
7) PITTSBURGH—It was all Ben and Company in the first half as they piled it on and racked up an unobtainable lead. Not so fast Pittsburgh. The second half turned into “Gentle Ben and Company” as the Steelers found themselves in overtime. As history is re-told, the Browns are still the Browns and wasted another great comeback. Let’s hope the Steelers show what they are all about this Thursday vs the Ravens.
8) GREENBAY—I can only say that the Packers are glad that was the first game of the season for them when they got beaked to death by the Seahawks. Secondly, they are the only team that gets 12 days to heal their bodies from the pounding they received from Seattle. They may get another rushing hit this week like the one Lynch displayed as the J-e-t-s are coming to town with their own running game.
9) INDIANAPOLIS—The Colts never quit. They have one of the best leaders in Andrew Luck and he showed it against the Broncos and lost but came away with a 1/2 pt. pointspread cover. They will put on quite the show in the AFC South now that Reggie Wayne has a game under his belt and with TY Hilton the gameplan to make the Colts an offensive machine.
10) NEW ENGLAND—Maybe the Bilichick/Brady duo has more age than experience. After-all, it’s been over a decade since they last slipped on a Championship ring. Brady could not get out of his own way against the Dolphin defense. Every area look sluggish and uninspired. It will not be a walk thru a park again this week as the Vikings actually believe in the Vikings and rightfully so. And it won’t hurt that ex-Pats back-up, Matt Cassel, is under center to accompany “Yo” Adrian Peterson. Watch the choreograph of Peterson and the short throws of Cassel. Could produce another home W.
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TEAMS LOOKING TO BECOME RELEVANT
11) ATLANTA—Hard earned victory against their divisional rival New Orleans, now try Cincinnati.
12) DETROIT—The Lions did NOT shoot themselves in the foot and lose the second half. Nice win vs. NY.
13) ARIZONA—Let’s not judge them, let’s accept the “W” they received Monday against San Diego.
14) BUFFALO—They have a new owner and a road win all in the same week. And averaged 9 ypc Sunday.
15) CAROLINA—It seems like Derik Anderson has been in the NFL forever. He was good in the opening game; now Cam is back to take over his 1-0 team
MIAMI, ARIZONA, NY JETS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUT UP A GREAT FIGHT TOWARDS THE TOP 10

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 10…WEEK 2

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 10…WEEK 2
by Wayne Allyn Root
1) OKLAHOMA: The Sooners, like most teams this early in the season, were never tested by Louisiana Tech. Leading 31-3 at halftime, it was the second team during the second half. They are 24 point favorite on the road at in-state Tulsa; one week before their match-up with Tennessee. Let’s begin to follow Trevor Knight at QB and see if he is worthy of a Heisman look.
2) ALABAMA: It was very interesting watching Nick Sabin watching Lane Kiffin call the offense for the Crimson Tide. Sabin better start watching his defense. West Virginia seemed comfortable running their own offense in that 33-23 contest. Bama’s secondary may need some extra game film as the Mountaineers QB attacked the Tide with success. Sigh of relief for Bama’s staff as they are -41 at home against Florida (Atlantic) haha.
3) OREGON: The Ducks put up 62 against SoDak St…in under 21 minutes of possession. Now finally a game all can watch this week. Oregon is hosting Michigan State. How do the Spartans counter this quick strike offense. The only way may be keeping the Ducks off the field. And as quick as Oregon scores, that may happen anyway.
4) FLORIDA ST: Florida St better stop reading last years headlines after barely squeaking by Oklahoma State 37-31. Early season games like this are expected from the 18 to 21 year old crowd but they better not count on breaks in upcoming games. One look ahead could wipe out an $18 MILL payday. Citadel is the team making the paycheck this week while Jimbo has his team running extra laps.
5) AUBURN: With Nick Marshall serving a first half suspension, the Tigers played Arkansas to a 21-21 tie at halftime. Then he was let loose and the Tigers put up a sweet 24 unanswered points to win and cover. If Marshall is not enough, how about the 177 yard performance of Cameron Artis-Payne? Maybe they won’t need the luck they held all of last season with talent like this.
6) MICHIGAN ST: What a week this will make for the Spartans. Last week they put up 38 points by halftime against Jacksonville St. This week they’ll be lucky to hold Oregon to 38 points by halftime. They do have a solid defense which will be tested in every aspect this week. They have some offense to fall back upon with QB Connor Cook and RB Jeremy Langford. Oregon is favored by 13 points.
7) TEXAS A&M: Have you heard about Kenny Football yet? You should have after last weeks game against South Carolina. They beat the Gamecocks 52-28. Their schedule is crazy. Who would open on the road at South Carolina and then play Lamar? The Bears are in the SEC West and need to work entirely on defense this week as they prepare for a rigorous SEC schedule.
8) OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes will always be in the safe hands of Urban Meyer. Quarterback or not. JT Barrett scared a few but in the end, his troops found a way to sink Navy 34-17 and get the cover along with the win. This week the Buckeyes play Virginia Tech; and they are no Navy. They have a defense capable of ruining OSU’s Saturday. Ezekiel Elliott and Curtis Samuel are there to take the load away from Barrett while he adjust to his new role.
9) STANFORD: UC Davis snuck into Stanford, scored no points, allowed 45 and took home their paycheck. Not sure that was what Stanford needed as they are in the toughest conference this year with some questions of their own. The Cardinal has a new defensive coordinator to replace many stars from last years 11-win team. One question will be answered this Saturday; can they hang with USC? They host the Trojans as a 3 point chalk.
10) GEORGIA: The Bulldog’s RB Todd Gurley is a stud. Against Clemson, he set a programs record for all-purpose yards with 293. He scored four touchdowns and showed the Nation his blinding speed. The Dawg’s “D” was equally impressive especially in the second half as they surrendered just 15 yards. Who needs QB Hutson Mason for anything but handing the ball off?  They meet South Carolina Gamecocks in 2 week.

WEEK 1 NFL TOP 10

 

WEEK 1 NFL TOP 10
by Wayne Allyn Root
1) SEATTLE: Let’s keep the Seahawks starting this season where they left off last season as simply THE BEST! And throw in 8 homes games for 8-0 and the best fans and the rest is a piece of cake. It also doesn’t hurt to have a great secondary to stop the other teams and Lynch to handle the ball control game that Russell Wilson manages so well. Hope they pay attention to their first game vs. Green Bay.
2) DENVER: The Broncos may be the most focused team in the NFL. They are the “Embarrassed AFC Champs.” But that’s good motivation. Game 1 will have them playing revenge from the 39-33 loss from a year ago. When Peyton Manning touches the ball, the fans, his teammates and everyone watching the game knows he will score. That has to wear on the minds of his opponents.
3) GREEN BAY: The Pack is back- at least when it comes to Aaron Rodgers and his health. “D” Coordinator Dom Capers was instructed to simplify the defense and make Julius Peppers part of the grit and determination needed for the other players to copy. Randall Cobb is also healthy and with Eddie Lacey giving Rodgers some much needed balance, this team will be sailing towards the playoffs.
4) NEW ENGLAND: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady….AGAIN!! Add Rob Gronkowski to the mix and the focus on defense (as the offense is set). Belichick added Darrelle Revis (of “Revis Island” fame) and Brandon Browner to his defensive secondary coverage helping his front seven. Now watch for a great pass rush for the Pats “D”.
5) NEW ORLEANS: Does a high octane offense ring a bell? Yes, but how about an up and coming defense with 2 of the best safeties in the NFL? Throw in Sean Peyton and an up-graded offensive line to protect Drew Brees and this team is on the right track to compete with Seattle and Green Bay for the NFC’s top honors.
6) INDIANAPOLIS: They may be a shoo-in to at least win their own division- so that is one major advantage. ( think back to Arizona Cardinals last year). Their weakness is huge as their defense knows how to give up points. The offense cannot grind enough from the running game, but Andrew Luck can put up points fast. The key is Luck, as we are all aware. His fiery personality and incredible character refuses to lose any game. He’ll be tested in week 1, on the road, against Manning and the Broncos…..playing with revenge as Indy handed them a 39-33 loss last year.
7) BALTIMORE: The Raves have the nucleus of a Championship team. Their coach in John Harbaugh. Joe Flacco at quarterback. A very, very good offensive line, a healthy Tight End target for Flacco, and…Steve Smith as the possession WR they’ve missed. Add in a young, hungry top 10 defense. When Ray Rice returns from his two game suspension, they should be ready to challenge all season long for the AFC North, head to head with the Bengals. Speaking of the Bengals, check the schedule for week 1.
8) CINCINNATI: Let’s go on the record by saying that Andy Dalton is better than most experts think….and what do those that sit behind a sports desk know anyway?  He can play flawless, manages the game correctly, stays within his own head and gets the ball to his receivers with precision accuracy. The new O-Coordinator, Hue Jackson, will teach him enough to become even better. With the amazing acrobat AC Green at WR and a top 5 defense, this team can shut down any team on any given Sunday. But…they travel to Baltimore for their first game….ouch!
9) SAN FRANCISCO: Does self-implosion ring a bell? NaVorro Bowman is out for 8 to 10 games. Aldon Smith is suspended for 9 games. Ray McDonald may be suspended long-term for domestic violence (smart, huh?) and has added fuel to this teams distractions. They have much talent but Colin Kaepernick will have to carry this team and not so sure he can. Maybe they can knock off the Cowboys this week in a game that may be more difficult in Jerry Jones Arena than it should have been.
10) CHICAGO: Maybe the Bears can ride the momentum of Chicago’s Little League U.S. championship team. I wonder how much patience the fans have left after 100 years of the Cubs and a few years of Jay Cutler? They used to have a black and blue defense, but several new starters will be on the field. If their chemistry is right then this may be a good year for “da bears”. Their offense is one of the best in the NFC so Cutler has few excuses left. It’s time to put up and give the Packers a race in the NFC North.
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TEAMS LOOKING TO MOVE UP
PHILADELPHIA: Should win the NFC East. They host the Jags in game one. Can great O win by itself?
ST LOUIS RAMS: They’ll be carried by a good coach in Jeff Fisher and a GREAT defense. It better be great, with Shaun Hill at QB!
PITTSBURGH: We find out if they are “old” or “experienced”.
ARIZONA: Bad luck to be in the NFC West. Carson Palmer could go either way. He was very good down the stretch last year.
SAN DIEGO: QB Rivers can take you a long way. Was last year’s playoff run the beginning of something big, or beginning of end?
DALLAS: Stop saying they have a bad “D”; we are aware. BUT, the Cowboy offense is as good as it gets. If Romo and Dez have the season of a lifetime, this team could reach the playoffs with no D.

WEEK 3 IN PRESEASON IS “DRESS REHEARHSAL”.

WEEK 3 PRESEASON FOOTBALL:

“DRESS REHEARSAL” FOR ALL NFL TEAMS

 

By WAYNE ALLYN ROOT

Week 3 of the preseason is referred to as the NFL’s “dress rehearsal week.” The third week of the preseason has a different sort of feel than the others. It’s a dress rehearsal for the regular season, as coaches usually play their starters well into the third quarter. Coaches keep their starters in the game past halftime, because in week 4 most of the starters are rested in an attempt to protect key players from injuries that would carry into the season. This is where information is critical. Handicapping edges are sharp and cutting if you have that information. The betting lines for these games are probably as close as the preseason gets to what we’d see in the regular season.

This week, we have one game on Thursday, five on Friday, eight on Saturday and two on Sunday. Seven of these games will be televised live – three on NFL Network, two on CBS, and on Sunday, one each on Fox and NBC. It’s very important you come to winningedge.com for my daily updates. The first 2 weeks of preseason games have me WINNING at 12-4 (75%) over-all and 6-2 (75%) with my Top Plays.

It’s interesting to note that Bill Billichick of New England will not show anything in this game that could impact his first game of the regular season. He is 0-6 ATS the past 6 years in week 3. That’s not to say that the pointspreads are not adjusted for that fact (and maybe his team this year is somewhat different so the results may change). But that’s the information and reasons needed to handicap week 3 of the preseason. While there are some wagering angles from which we believe we can profit during the exhibition slate, my staff and I will discuss some of those over the week. For this week, I recommend keeping your bets relative to their size once meaningful games commence. This is the time to continue to build the bankroll. REAL regular season college football begins in only 8 days!

Come to winningedge.com each and every day throughout the season for my winners…BUT do not miss this week 3. With College Football beginning next week, this is a crucial week not only for each NFL team’s evaluation, but for all bettors looking to build your bankroll for the start of another successful football season. Last season I ranked as the #7 NFL handicapper in America. That’s out of the 100 or so of the top professional handicappers in the world who are credible and ethical enough to be willing to be documented and monitored by TSM (The Sports Monitor).

Good Luck for football 2014,

Wayne

 

Preparing for the NFL Season—-the importance of the SCHEDULE

PREPARING FOR THE NFL SEASON:
ANALYZING THE SCHEDULE
by WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
What is the first thing a head coach does every spring? The day the NFL schedule is released, he pours over it with vigor. He and his staff use multiple color pens, markers and grease boards. It’s his most important day. The schedule is more significant than many factors in terms of determining winners and losers. The single most important thing to remember when analyzing a football team’s schedule is that there are no hard and fast rules. But our “due diligence” begins with the scheduling. Schedule analysis, when done poorly, can force people to make a lot of poor decisions. What might be a horrific circumstance for one team, might not bother another in a major way. Effectively using schedule analysis as a handicapping tool uses some sharp thought and the search for insights. There are certain factors that I look for when going over each team’s schedule. You will need a calendar to make many notes. If something about the schedule is obvious then everyone is going to figure it out and it won’t give you any betting advantage. You need to look deeper to get that edge.
1) Three consecutive road games:
The first thing I generally want to do is find any team that is playing three (3) games in a row on the road. I then circle that 3rd road game and mark it on my calendar. The travel involved takes it’s toll. The luggage, packing, different time zones and being away from home those extra days during a 21 day period is very difficult at best.
2) Cross country trips:
The travel time needs to be analyzed in terms of the team’s next game. That is when the hardship arises. However, for West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast, that can prove to be advantageous to the home team as well. I want to make sure I give a few extra looks at this betting opportunity. East Coast teams playing on Sunday or Monday night in the pacific time zone will find the game ending after 11:30 ET and their body may not be in sync.
3) Bye Weeks; going into them and first game back.
This is critical. Some teams do not benefit if they are playing at their highest level, so the game following their bye week may be difficult to perform to an inflated pointspread. On the other hand, teams that are banged up may be able to heal some injuries and come out of their bye week gunning for victories. Additionally, there are situations where coming out of a bye week against a superior team is to their advantage, as the coaching staff has more time to prepare. On the opposite side if a team knows that the first game back is against a cupcake opponent, their practices and mind frame may not be conducive to a pointspread win.
4) Upcoming team’s style of play:
How would you like to see your opponent have to play against a strong running team two weeks in a row before your pass-first team gets to play them. The running team D is slowed down and their pass defense hasn’t been tested in three weeks. I like that opportunity. As the old saying goes, who you play is less important than when you play them. There are many times every year when a series of games makes a team appear to be a different team than they really are, or it can have a real impact on their ability to perform.
 
5) After Monday Night or Thursday Night games:
Teams react differently after a big game in front of the nation (and their fellow peers). Some teams letdown the following week. Where the game is played is also a big factor. Does the loser have a home or road game the following week?
In conclusion:
The betting public may start to think that a team is much better than they really are…if they play a string of teams that match up well for them, or if they are playing relatively weaker teams. That can lead to value, if the public then buys into the hype and bets accordingly. Every aspect of scheduling and match-ups play into my handicapping decisions. The public most often bets from what they saw last week on TV, or what they read in the newspaper last Monday morning, without ever considering the importance of analyzing the schedule. That’s why the “average Joe” should stick to his day job and hire a professional sports handicapper to pick his point spread winners!
For more of these articles, continue to come back each and everyday to winningedge.com where “Winning is Everything”.
Enjoy the Season,
WAR
Wayne Allyn Root