CASHING IN ON EARLY SEASON COLLEGE FAVORITES

CASHING IN ON EARLY SEASON COLLEGE FAVORITES
by Wayne Allyn Root
It is said that the most important 2 weeks for the Vegas Oddsmakers are the first 2 weeks of college football. But it’s not with what you think. I’m not sure that there is a time in any sport and certainly in college football that is better for making money than the first two or three weeks of the non-conference season.
 
The oddsmakers don’t have the team strengths down “cold” so early in the season, so they create what’s called “soft” numbers. I’m not saying you can load up the wagon with free money, but this is your chance to gain an edge…WITH THE ADVICE OF THE RIGHT PROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPER.
Professional handicappers like myself have a staff, history, experience and longevity on my side when “knowing what to look for.” To cash in, though, you have to know where to look, and you have to be willing to put in the work that most bettors just don’t have the time for. That’s where I come in. Here are four places where college football handicappers can often find nice value in the early non-conference season.
 
1) Week 2 games:
If there is a blowout in week 1, then look at possibly betting against that team in week 2. On the other side of the coin is if a college team loses in an upset, look to bet on that team in week 2. I’m not saying it’s an automatic bet, but I look at the public money on these two occasions because the public bets “what they just saw.”
2) New Quarterback:
When last year’s superstar QB graduates, there may be a letdown in terms of talent. Or maybe not. Georgia’s Aaron Murray left for the NFL, so do you really know the level of his replacement? That’s the information gathered from spring and summer practices that are necessary for the successful handicapper. Some of the questions I ask are, has the replacement QB played meaningful action in the past? Has he spent a lot of time with the program? Is the offense particularly suited to his skills? As for coming out of the box for game 1, is it an intricate, demanding offense, or are there things a QB can do learn quickly?
3) Offensive line:
This is an area I guarantee that few non-pro handicappers look to analyze. The offensive line is responsible for so much in the game of football. If the offensive line plays well, then the quarterback has time to relax and establish a passing game, the running game can become a force, and the defense gets a chance to rest and won’t be forced to constantly play from behind. The preseason in college football is short and lacking real game action, so it can take a few games for new starters to get comfortable with the schemes, their teammates, and the speed of the game. Bottom line is to look for experience.
4) Non-BCS teams looking for blood:
The non-conference football schedule always features major conference teams scheduling games against cupcake teams. Those games feature huge lines, and the public assumes that the major conference team – almost always playing at home – will cruise to an easy win. The betting public will assume that a team isn’t going to be competitive if they come from a minor conference and are fairly obscure. Most public bettors will assume that the major conference football teams will win easily, so if the small conference team plays over their head, you are getting “value” (loads of extra points).
Why come to winningedge.com?
For answers and tips like the above, along with many more useful articles that will make you into a POINTSPREAD WINNER!! It’s also been stated by the wise that you can be successful through your own efforts, or even more successful through the efforts of others (if they know more than you). Very successful investors rely on paid consultants and advice from experts outside their realm of expertise. So be sure to choose wisely.
See you weekly at winningedge.com for articles and of course……..many WINNERS!!
Good Luck,
WAR

Best College Coaches 2014

Best College Coaches 2014:

  1. Nick Saban- Alabama. Coaches just don’t get any better. “D” wins national championships and Saban is perhaps the best defensive coach in the history of college football. His record at Alabama against Top 25 opponents is 28-12. Saban has won 4 national championships and 4 SEC championships.
  2. Urban Meyer- Oho State. His two national championships, two SEC championships, two perfect seasons at Utah and Ohio State, and 7-2 Bowl record testify to his greatness. Record versus Top 25 opponents: 25-12.
  3. David Shaw- Stanford. Shaw’s 14-4 record against Top 25 teams is unmatched in all of college football. That’s almost 4 to 1 winners-to-losers. And 2 of the 4 losses were in OT. Can you imagine? Shaw could be 16-2 against Top 25 opponents! That’s unheard of in college football history. And this ‘aint Alabama either. Stanford is not a NCAA powerhouse historically. He’s been a head coach for 3 years, yet he’s won Pac 12 Coach of the Year twice.
  4. Bob Stoops- Oklahoma. Stoops’ has courage and great skill- he’s played among the most games against Top 25 opponents in college football history. His record is a fantastic 50-23.
  5. Les Miles- LSU. He is overshadowed by fellow SEC superstar Nick Saban, but Miles can hold his own with any coach in history. At LSU he is 37-19 against Top 25 opponents. Miles has won one national championship and two SEC championships (maybe even tougher).
  6. Steve Spurrier- South Carolina. Spurrier is 62-52 versus Top 25 opponents, but more importantly he’s close to .500 at lightly regarded South Carolina versus SEC opposition. Another national championship winner.
  7. Gary Patterson- TCU. Another defensive genius like Nick Saban, edxcept Patterson is coaching small-school TCU (up until last year playing in the weak-sister Mountain West). What a job getting to 14-14 versus Top 25 opponents. Patterson put TCU on the map.
  8. Jimbo Fisher- Florida State. Fisher is pretty new to coaching, but a national championship and a 9-5 record versus Top 25 opponents is a pretty good resume.
  9. Brian Kelly- Notre Dame. Kelly is 7-7 at Notre Dame versus Top 25 opponents, but 15-11 lifetime. Kelly has won 11 Coach of the Year awards! He’s already been to one national championship game and I would bet his future holds more. He is as good as it gets.
  10. Mark Dantonio- Michigan State. Another great defensive coach who has led Michigan State from mediocrity to greatness. In 7 years he has led the Spartans to 7 Bowls, won two Big 10 championships and two Big 10 Coach of the Year awards.

Honorable mentions that could move up in 2014:

Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech,

Gary Pinkel of Missouri,

Charlie Strong of Texas

Gary Anderson of Wisconsin.

WEEK 3 IN PRESEASON IS “DRESS REHEARHSAL”.

WEEK 3 PRESEASON FOOTBALL:

“DRESS REHEARSAL” FOR ALL NFL TEAMS

 

By WAYNE ALLYN ROOT

Week 3 of the preseason is referred to as the NFL’s “dress rehearsal week.” The third week of the preseason has a different sort of feel than the others. It’s a dress rehearsal for the regular season, as coaches usually play their starters well into the third quarter. Coaches keep their starters in the game past halftime, because in week 4 most of the starters are rested in an attempt to protect key players from injuries that would carry into the season. This is where information is critical. Handicapping edges are sharp and cutting if you have that information. The betting lines for these games are probably as close as the preseason gets to what we’d see in the regular season.

This week, we have one game on Thursday, five on Friday, eight on Saturday and two on Sunday. Seven of these games will be televised live – three on NFL Network, two on CBS, and on Sunday, one each on Fox and NBC. It’s very important you come to winningedge.com for my daily updates. The first 2 weeks of preseason games have me WINNING at 12-4 (75%) over-all and 6-2 (75%) with my Top Plays.

It’s interesting to note that Bill Billichick of New England will not show anything in this game that could impact his first game of the regular season. He is 0-6 ATS the past 6 years in week 3. That’s not to say that the pointspreads are not adjusted for that fact (and maybe his team this year is somewhat different so the results may change). But that’s the information and reasons needed to handicap week 3 of the preseason. While there are some wagering angles from which we believe we can profit during the exhibition slate, my staff and I will discuss some of those over the week. For this week, I recommend keeping your bets relative to their size once meaningful games commence. This is the time to continue to build the bankroll. REAL regular season college football begins in only 8 days!

Come to winningedge.com each and every day throughout the season for my winners…BUT do not miss this week 3. With College Football beginning next week, this is a crucial week not only for each NFL team’s evaluation, but for all bettors looking to build your bankroll for the start of another successful football season. Last season I ranked as the #7 NFL handicapper in America. That’s out of the 100 or so of the top professional handicappers in the world who are credible and ethical enough to be willing to be documented and monitored by TSM (The Sports Monitor).

Good Luck for football 2014,

Wayne

 

Preparing for the NFL Season—-the importance of the SCHEDULE

PREPARING FOR THE NFL SEASON:
ANALYZING THE SCHEDULE
by WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
What is the first thing a head coach does every spring? The day the NFL schedule is released, he pours over it with vigor. He and his staff use multiple color pens, markers and grease boards. It’s his most important day. The schedule is more significant than many factors in terms of determining winners and losers. The single most important thing to remember when analyzing a football team’s schedule is that there are no hard and fast rules. But our “due diligence” begins with the scheduling. Schedule analysis, when done poorly, can force people to make a lot of poor decisions. What might be a horrific circumstance for one team, might not bother another in a major way. Effectively using schedule analysis as a handicapping tool uses some sharp thought and the search for insights. There are certain factors that I look for when going over each team’s schedule. You will need a calendar to make many notes. If something about the schedule is obvious then everyone is going to figure it out and it won’t give you any betting advantage. You need to look deeper to get that edge.
1) Three consecutive road games:
The first thing I generally want to do is find any team that is playing three (3) games in a row on the road. I then circle that 3rd road game and mark it on my calendar. The travel involved takes it’s toll. The luggage, packing, different time zones and being away from home those extra days during a 21 day period is very difficult at best.
2) Cross country trips:
The travel time needs to be analyzed in terms of the team’s next game. That is when the hardship arises. However, for West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast, that can prove to be advantageous to the home team as well. I want to make sure I give a few extra looks at this betting opportunity. East Coast teams playing on Sunday or Monday night in the pacific time zone will find the game ending after 11:30 ET and their body may not be in sync.
3) Bye Weeks; going into them and first game back.
This is critical. Some teams do not benefit if they are playing at their highest level, so the game following their bye week may be difficult to perform to an inflated pointspread. On the other hand, teams that are banged up may be able to heal some injuries and come out of their bye week gunning for victories. Additionally, there are situations where coming out of a bye week against a superior team is to their advantage, as the coaching staff has more time to prepare. On the opposite side if a team knows that the first game back is against a cupcake opponent, their practices and mind frame may not be conducive to a pointspread win.
4) Upcoming team’s style of play:
How would you like to see your opponent have to play against a strong running team two weeks in a row before your pass-first team gets to play them. The running team D is slowed down and their pass defense hasn’t been tested in three weeks. I like that opportunity. As the old saying goes, who you play is less important than when you play them. There are many times every year when a series of games makes a team appear to be a different team than they really are, or it can have a real impact on their ability to perform.
 
5) After Monday Night or Thursday Night games:
Teams react differently after a big game in front of the nation (and their fellow peers). Some teams letdown the following week. Where the game is played is also a big factor. Does the loser have a home or road game the following week?
In conclusion:
The betting public may start to think that a team is much better than they really are…if they play a string of teams that match up well for them, or if they are playing relatively weaker teams. That can lead to value, if the public then buys into the hype and bets accordingly. Every aspect of scheduling and match-ups play into my handicapping decisions. The public most often bets from what they saw last week on TV, or what they read in the newspaper last Monday morning, without ever considering the importance of analyzing the schedule. That’s why the “average Joe” should stick to his day job and hire a professional sports handicapper to pick his point spread winners!
For more of these articles, continue to come back each and everyday to winningedge.com where “Winning is Everything”.
Enjoy the Season,
WAR
Wayne Allyn Root

Six (6) “must do’s” in August for COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Six (6) “must do’s” in August
to prepare for College Football
By Wayne Allyn Root
As a Handicapping Professional, I do NOT wait for the season to begin for my College Football handicapping. You’re correct when you say it doesn’t pay anything to study college football right now. But I assure you, I’ll be rewarded with huge dividends starting week 1 of college football. I will NOT have to wait for oddsmakers adjustments for me to begin to profit. I will be firing at bad lines based on my own adjustments made prior to the opening kickoff. It has been my August homework preparations that I have relied on for my 29 season of sports betting (successfully I humbly add). There are few handicapping professionals that have been winning for this long of a period. Lastly, you can do the work yourself (and put in 80 hours), or come back week after week and capitalize on my efforts, research and long hours. Feel free to join me each and every week at winningedge.com.
WAR
Wayne Allyn Root
1) What’s the information on new recruits:
Each year there is a wave of new college players who join each and every team in the country. This is when one has to go to the internet and read the daily write-ups about practices and see if they measure up. The team’s stats from last year are irrelevant if the team has gone through a lot of changes, so you need to know what those changes are and what they mean. One must also check injuries, team conditioning and chemistry. There’s been many a fight during these hot months of preparation. When looking at the players coming in, you need to get a sense of who they are and what role they are likely to fill on each team.
2) Learn about last year’s redshirts:
This is often overlooked by college football handicappers. I love to know if there is someone special coming in to take the place of a superstar that just departed. Someone just under the radar. Most teams have several players coming off a redshirt year. It’s more likely in most cases that redshirts will make an impact on the team than true freshmen will.
3) Does this team have a third year starter QB:
Similar to a veteran offensive line, a quarterback with a lot of experience under his belt can give his team a lift early on. At the college level, covering pointspreads or not, often depends on having an experienced QB. He not only has confidence in himself, but with the team as well. He has a certain swagger and the game has slowed down for a 3rd year starter.
4) Veteran offensive lines are the “key”:
The best shortcut for finding college teams that will be ready to be competitive at the start of the football season is to find ones that will be starting five upperclassmen on the offensive line. This is more profound early in the season as the oddsmakers will make adjustments by week 3, so a veteran O-line will pay dividends to smart gamblers.
5) Know the “cupcake” early schedules:
The betting public attaches a lot of significance to the records of teams. In non-conference play, though, the records can be a terrible indicator of how good a team is actually performing. A BCS conference team could have a 4-0 record while still playing very poorly if they have scheduled a weak non-conference schedule. Be aware that the polls are useless this year as it comes down to a Committee to vote on the four (4) teams to make the National Championship playoff. They say that strength of schedule is very important, but there is no written criteria determining that is so. This will be monitored weekly by tuning into more of the coaches press conferences and hearing their comments about teams they play and blowouts they produce.
6) Be aware of coaching changes:
The coaching ranks in college football are like a revolving door.  New coaches bring new styles and new energy, so it is very important to get a sense of who is new and what impact it will have on their teams. The more a coach will be looking to change the offensive and defensive styles, the rougher the initial season could be. This is a “key” factor. Some coaches should not disturb everything in the system and ease change in while motivating their players. Additionally, a change in offensive or defensive coordinator can have a significant impact on the team, and if the change wasn’t a high profile one then the betting public could miss out on the significance of it. This can certainly affect the smart bettors football picks.
Happy Hunting and have a profitable betting season. See you at WinningEDGE.com

EVALUATING THE LISTED QUARTERBACK ROTATIONS IN THE **AFC** FOR 2014

EVALUATING THE LISTED QUARTERBACK ROTATIONS

IN THE AFC FOR 2014
by WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
This is the time to make money. Preseason football is more about the coaches game plan and the gathering of critical information. Many times the veteran QB’s are sidelined so that is the time to sit the veteran offensive linemen as well. With that being said, that team will be playing 2nd and 3rd stringers and if they are up against a team playing their veterans, the contest may become a blowout resulting in a huge Wayne Root WIN! That is a game you will never want to miss. No promises that every match-up is like that but there usually are a few each week.
My information is updated in “real time” each week as the teams game plans are updated. During the regular season, both teams play to win with their teams best personnel. The next four (4) weeks are they only time during the year that information takes this much importance. I am a huge fan of betting preseason games.
Wayne
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Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
They open preseason against Seattle so that weeks game plan from Coach Fox is critical.
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Andy Reid is a go-against as he loves to evaluate all levels of talent and has some QB’s to figure out as Aaron Murray needs evaluated to see if hype matches talent.
Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Matt Schaub is their top signal caller but needs to prove it in preseason. Carr could be great.
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Somehow Coach McCoy likes to run up the score in preseason.
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Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Mike Pettine (ROOKIE)
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)
Who won’t be paying attention to this QB race? It’s a very difficult one for the new coach to have to make so the top 2 QB’s will get plenty of reps.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)
Coach Tomlin could care little or less in the preseason. Ben is looking for a new contract paying $25Mill a year so the Steelers may need a back up plan and watch all QB’s more than normal. Ben can also not afford to get hurt again.
Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott
Coach Lewis loves to win game 1 and then it’s anybodies guess. Dalton needs some more confidence. The backup QB’s may be a bust.
Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Take a look at their QB roster and it’s difficult to find a backup to back when Flacco is out.
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Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis
It could be that Coach Marrone will want to impress the home fans will the re-location talk in the City.
New York Jets
Head Coach:
Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)
Geno is the top dog and Vick is a capable backup wanting to grad the top job. Nice competition here.
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie – North Dakota State)
Coach Philbin has a boring game plan in the regular season and an even more uneventful one in preseason.
The QB’s are not that good.
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie – Eastern Illinois)
Coach Belichick shows nothing in preseason that can get on game film and used against him by regular season opponents. That may be why he is 0-6 on the week 3 dress rehearsal game
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Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien (ROOKIE)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)
The Texans have two QB’s that can play and will take the bettor deep into the game. Coach O’Brien needs to evaluate as a rookie coach.
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
The Colts have a few QB’s that can move the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
Not much to offer in terms of QB’s. Hope they have a running game and a defense!!
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt (ROOKIE)
Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
Coach Whisenhunt is not necessarily into winning preseason games and as a new coach he needs to evaluate and not worry about his preseason record.
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Your assignment is to come to winningedge.com for my updates every week and believe that there is many betting opportunities betting the preseason. This is the perfect time to build your bankroll for the upcoming season!!
Wayne